Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) 2023

3. Assessment of policies to address skill shortages and improve matching

3.5. Building skills anticipation and intelligence into skills governance systems

Many factors affect skills needs, including the digital and green transitions, and no single tool or method can fully anticipate labour market and skill trends. Rather, combining different methods gathers in-depth information on the current state of play, as well as the expected skills demand and supply necessary for well-founded investment and other policy decisions (Chart 3.8).

Numerous stakeholders have a role in designing a holistic skills anticipation approach. National/regional/local authorities, such as ministries and linked organisations, often lead the production and use of skills anticipation outputs at a strategic level, while social partners drive skills anticipation exercises in many Member States and can also operate as ambassadors for the use of relevant outputs in policy-making. Other important stakeholders include research institutes and education and training providers. It is widely recognised that the availability of skills anticipation methods in a country/region/sector can enhance effective matching of people to jobs, provided it is part of a comprehensive skills governance approach. ⁽³⁵⁷⁾

Several relevant workstreams provide skills intelligence at the EU level. For instance, Cedefop documents recent trends in employers’ demands based on a large-scale collection and analysis of online vacancies (Skills-OVATE tool). ⁽³⁵⁸⁾. In addition, Cedefop’s Skills Forecast offers quantitative projections of future trends in employment, by sector and occupational group (see Chapter 2, Section 2.2.). A specific European Green Deal skills scenario explores the expected effects on sectors and occupations relevant for the green transition, as well as opportunities and challenges in providing effective and timely upskilling and reskilling opportunities (see Chapter 2, Section 3.1.). Other relevant EU initiatives on skills intelligence include the ELA’s work on labour shortages ⁽³⁵⁹⁾ and the European Commission’s AMEDI ⁽³⁶⁰⁾ and AMEDI+ ⁽³⁶¹⁾ projects.

An integrative approach to skills governance may be challenging, as it necessitates generating, analysing and disseminating skills intelligence gathered through skills anticipation methods. Lack of funds or human resources expertise, weak coordination among the organisations involved, and poor statistical infrastructure are some of the key barriers reported by Member States. ⁽³⁶²⁾ Use of skills anticipation outputs in steering the design of policies in education and training, employment, activation, migration, and the environment implies an openness to negotiation between key actors. It also relies on well-designed dissemination of the outputs to diverse audiences through targeted communication approaches and tailored formats. Continuous feedback loops between education and training systems and the labour market, as well as other policy areas, bridges information gaps and identifies synergies and complementarities to inform policy cycles. Finally, national specificities in the ability to tackle information asymmetries, as well as coordination failures among key stakeholders, also determine the effectiveness of a skills governance approach. ⁽³⁶³⁾