Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) 2023

2. Labour shortages, including skills shortages, in the EU

2.2. Identifying persistent labour shortages and their skills needs

Many occupations already facing persistent labour shortages are projected to experience high labour shortages in the future. Cedefop’s ‘future shortage indicator’ ⁽¹³⁵⁾ is constructed from three areas of information: labour market imbalances, expansion, and replacement demand (Box 2.1). It shows that for science and engineering professionals, health professionals, ICT professionals, personal services workers, and personal care workers, labour shortages are likely to be strongly driven by the overall level of occupational employment growth. For health professionals, personal care workers, drivers and mobile plant operators, and cleaners and helpers, replacement needs will also play a key role. Among shortage occupations, labour market imbalances are estimated to have a strong impact for personal services workers, sales workers, building, metal, machinery and related trades workers, drivers and mobile plant operators, and cleaners and helpers.

Future labour shortages at occupational level will be primarily driven by growth in employment and mismatches in education composition, with differences across broad occupation skill groups (Table 2.4). While future shortages in high-skilled non-manual occupations will be strongly driven by expansion and replacement needs, elementary and skilled manual occupations will be significantly affected by labour market imbalances. Across broad occupation skill groups, elementary occupations and high-skilled non-manual occupations are projected to face the strongest shortages by 2035. This includes some occupations in the high-skilled and elementary occupation groups that are not currently identified as experiencing persistent labour shortages. ⁽¹³⁶⁾ However, given the lower skill requirements of elementary occupations, their shortages are less likely to create significant bottlenecks in availability of staff with the required educational credentials. Rather, the challenge in these occupations relates to over-education and job satisfaction, and to retaining and attracting staff under existing wage and working conditions. By contrast, shortages in higher-skilled occupations, such as legal and business professionals, may require additional efforts in education and training, given the higher educational credentials typically required in these professions. ⁽¹³⁷⁾ Also, shortages of science and engineering professionals can benefit from supporting diversification in researchers’ careers. ⁽¹³⁸⁾ Finally, shortages of some skilled manual and non-manual occupations are expected to be high, largely due to labour market imbalances.