Employment and Social Developments in Europe (ESDE) 2024

2. Analysis of socioeconomic convergence at eu level

2.3. Developments in convergence of social outcomes

Since 2015, the AROPE rate has declined for both adults and children, accompanied by convergence across countries. The AROPE rate decreased from 24% in 2015 to 21.4% in 2023 (with decreases halting since 2019) for the population as a whole, and from 27.4% to 24.8% for children (aged 0-17) (Chart 2.6). ⁽⁸⁴⁾ This development occurred despite the shocks and impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the energy crisis and geopolitical shocks demonstrating the effectiveness of the exceptional support measures Member States and EU put in place to mitigate the impact of these crises. Since 2015, declines have been apparent across all components of the AROPE rate: severe material and social deprivation (SMSD) rate, monetary poverty and low work intensity. The highest declines were recorded in the SMSD rate (-2.9 pp). The improvement in aggregate EU performance since 2015 was accompanied by convergence in the AROPE rate and its components across Member States, for both adults and children. The magnitude of the cross-country gaps in the AROPE rate for adults and children remained sizeable. In 2023, national AROPE rates ranged from approximately 12% to 32% (10.7% to 39% for children). Regional trends and convergence in adult AROPE rates broadly followed national developments, with mild declines in poverty and social exclusion accompanied by slow convergence since 2015.

Countries and regions with high AROPE rates saw bigger average reductions than those with low AROPE rates (Table 2.1). Some central, eastern and southern European countries that recorded the highest AROPE rates in 2015 (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Spain), including for children (Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Greece, Lithuania, Italy), showed a pattern of catching up with the better performing Member States by 2023. Pronounced catching-up of some eastern, northern and central European countries (Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,) was also evident in the SMSD rate. This catching-up effect could also be identified at regional level, albeit somewhat weaker than at national level.

In the last couple of years, poverty and social exclusion risks did not increase and differences between Member State indicators have remained stable. Amid unprecedented support during the COVID-19 pandemic, AROPE rates at EU level remained stable since 2020, as did their variation by country. This is in contrast to the 2008 financial crisis, which led to increases in poverty and social exclusion at EU level with increasing differences between countries from 2008 until 2013.

Health outcomes of the EU population remained stable at EU level, with no robust pattern of convergence or divergence across Member States since 2014. On average, between 2014 and 2022, both women and men in the EU could expect around nine additional healthy life years at the age of 65, with a slightly higher value for women than men (Chart 2.7). The COVID-19 pandemic led to an overall decrease of life expectancy. In 2022, the average number of healthy life years that a man aged 65 is expected to live ranged from 4 to 13.5 across the Member States. For women aged 65, that range was 3.8 to 14.3. While cross-country variations remained stable, there was a catching-up process between 2007 and 2022 (Table 2.1).