General economic and policy context

After a strong rebound following the recession triggered by the COVID-19 outbreak, economic activity in the EU expanded further in 2023 and 2024, although at a substantially slower pace. In 2023, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the EU grew by 0.4%, with growth projected at 0.9% in 2024 – substantially below the 2.2% average annual expansion recorded from 2015 to 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher interest rates to counter inflation, as well as the effects of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine on energy prices, continued to impede economic growth. Although inflation remained high, it decreased from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023, and further to 2.6% in 2024. While the real wage per employee decreased in 2023 – by 0.5% compared to a 2.2%-decrease in 2022 – unemployment reached a record low of 6.1%. In 2024, real wage per employee is projected to have increased by 2.2%, and the unemployment rate is projected to have decreased further to 5.9%.

Several positive developments are expected to continue into 2025: decreased inflation, lower interest rates, sustained low unemployment, real wage and GDP growth. Labour shortages are showing signs of easing. However, uncertainty persists due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Middle East crisis, trade disruptions in the Red Sea, the continued Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, and recent protectionist measures by trading partners, notably the recent tariff measures implemented by the United States. Moreover, structural weaknesses in the EU economy remains to be addressed. Slow innovation and a lack of business dynamism continue to pose challenges; Mario Draghi’s report on the future of European competitiveness stresses the need for more investment in the EU economy and states that the EU is facing an ‘existential challenge’. Low productivity growth and level of investment may make it increasingly difficult for firms to sustain wage growth, leading them to either reduce labour inputs or pass higher costs on to consumers.

In this macro-economic and geopolitical context, competitiveness, security and climate are key focus areas of the new European Commission. The Commission’s will present its proposal for the next multiannual financial framework in July 2025. This should include a plan for each EU Member State with regard to key reforms and investments, and a plan for the establishment of a European competitiveness fund providing the Commission with the capacity to invest in supporting strategic sectors and critical technologies. The Commission’s priorities are also reflected in the policy initiatives around the sectors of the Blue Economy, including the new European ocean pact, which is one of the focus areas in the portfolio of Commissioner Kadis. The European ocean pact aims to provide an overarching and consistent policy framework for all policy areas linked to oceans. It focuses on supporting resilient and healthy oceans; promoting a competitive Blue Economy; ensuring opportunities in coastal communities; developing a comprehensive agenda for marine knowledge, innovation and investment; and stepping up maritime security, and strengthening maritime spatial planning. In the light of current global and geopolitical challenges, the European Council also stressed the strategic importance of oceans, water resilience and the Blue Economy in strengthening the EU’s competitiveness and resilience. It also welcomed the Commission’s intention to put forward an ambitious, holistic and forward-looking European ocean pact.

Oceans and coastal areas offer a sea of opportunities for economic growth and development. Access to and management of the maritime space are key in developing these opportunities. To date, 20 out of 22 coastal Member States have adopted national maritime spatial plans, as requested by the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive. Most of them are revising their plans to accommodate conservation and restoration objectives and offshore renewable energy ambitions for 2030 and beyond. The EU’s biodiversity strategy for 2030 is a comprehensive, ambitious and long-term plan to protect nature and reverse the degradation of ecosystems. It aims to legally protect a minimum of 30% of the EU’s sea area. In this context, the Nature Restoration Regulation, which is a key element of the EU biodiversity strategy, entered into force in August 2024.