Education and Training Monitor 2023

1. The teaching profession

Germany employs more teachers, but it still faces serious shortages, especially in early childhood education and care (ECEC). Germany currently employs 2.6 million people in the education sector, about 6% of all employed. In addition, some 1 million people work in continuous education. However, demand for teaching staff at all levels is rising. The standing conference of German education ministers (KMK) estimates that student numbers will rise by 9.2% to 12 million by 2035 (KMK, 2023a). The increase will mainly affect regions in western Germany, while the school population will decrease in the east. The number of pupils in lower secondary is expected to increase the most, followed by upper secondary and then primary (KMK 2022a). At the same time, a quarter of all school teachers are above 55 years¹. While there are no comprehensive statistical data, all stakeholders agree that there are already staff shortages. ECEC has seen the most dynamic increase in staff from 450 000 in 2011 to over 700 000 in 2021. Nevertheless, the German Education Report estimates that there will be a lack of 652 000 places in ECEC by 2025² which would require recruiting 165 000 to 200 000 additional staff by 2025 and 203 000 – 235 000 by 2030 (Autor: inengruppe Bildungsberichterstattung, henceforth ABBE, 2022).

Schools face a serious lack of teachers, especially in STEM disciplines. While there are no comprehensive statistical data, all stakeholders agree on already existing staff shortages. The education ministries of the Laender identified 12 341 teaching vacancies in Germany at the beginning of 2023 (rnd 2023). The German teacher association puts the number at least three times higher (32 000-40 000)³ (Anders, 2022). 57% of school heads surveyed by end of 2022 reported at least one teacher vacancy (Forsa, 2022). With about 32 000 schools, this could translate into over 50 000 vacant posts. The KMK identified an annual shortage of about 23 500 teachers by 2035 (ABBE, 2022). Their predictions are based on current trends and exclude additional needs due to, for example, the high number of Ukrainian displaced pupils. A 2022 study building on more dynamic assumptions estimated the actual shortage at closer to 127 100-158 700 teachers by 2035 (Klemm, 2022). Also stakeholders, such as the teacher unions (VBE 2023; GEW 2023; DBB 2023), argue that the projections presented by the KMK are based on historical experience and omit policy initiatives such as all-day schools, inclusive schools or focus schools, which require more resources. A study related to STEM teachers in North-Rhine Westphalia found that the number of newly trained teachers in STEM subjects for secondary schools had fallen by about a third between 2013 and 2019 (from 1 809 to 1 155). The number of active teachers including STEM teachers is also expected to fall by a third by 2030, which would indicate a severe potential gap (Klemm, 2022).

The teaching profession in Germany lacks appeal, despite the comparatively good wages. Expressed in purchasing power parity (pps), initial statuary salaries for permanently employed teachers in Germany are second highest in the EU (European Commission/EACEA/Eurydice, 2021). Salary progression, however, remains in EU comparison low (European Commission/EACEA/Eurydice, 2022). Teacher salaries are competitive, around the salary levels of tertiary educated workers⁴ (OECD, 2022). 91% of teachers like their work or like it very much. However, nearly a third of teachers (28%) would not advise young people to enter the profession due to the high workload and a general lack of prestige (ABBE, 2022). The fall in attractiveness of the teaching profession is also reflected in the fall in numbers of teacher education graduates (28 900 in 2021⁵ compared to 33 500 in 2011). German Laender have taken a range of measures to remedy the situation and plan to evaluate the effects of these measures (KMK 2022).

Germany has increasingly harmonised qualification requirements and staff training in early childhood education and care (ECEC) and facilitated access to the profession. The KMK started in 2010 to draw up a guidance framework for ECEC teachers (KMK, 2017), complemented in 2020 by a competence-oriented qualification profile for ECEC assistants (KMK, 2021). The approximately 650 training programmes for Kindergarten teachers at trade and technical schools are the most popular training option in ECEC, providing training at ISCED 6 or bachelor level. They require at least a lower secondary school leaving diploma for admission plus professional experience. Serious staff shortages have led the Laender to lower the access criteria, create additional and shorter new vocational training courses and facilitate lateral entry in several ways (ABBE, 2022). The criteria to access the training changed during the pandemic. In 2020/2021, about 43% of students did not meet the original more stringent access criteria of sufficient prior professional experience (Mende, 2022).

There are several routes to enter the teaching profession, differing also by Laender. Teacher education at all education levels is the remit of the Laender. There are still significant differences, despite coordination by the KMK⁶. Some Laender increasingly employ staff from these different lateral routes to fill vacancies and facilitate training and recruitment (Deutscher Bildungsserver a). The share of lateral entrants among German teachers more than doubled between 2015 and 2022, from 4% to 10% (ABBE, 2022). Sachsen-Anhalt recorded 46.9%, the highest percentage of lateral entrants in 2022 (KMK, 2023).

Career prospects and scope for professional development in the teaching profession remain limited in Germany. Teachers have only one career structure available in Germany (European Commission/EACEA/Eurydice, 2021). Continuous professional development is provided by several public and independent providers. According to the 2022 Education Report, only about half of ECEC institutions facilitate continued professional development. (ABBE, 2022) Although the high demand for teachers facilitates the job search, once teachers start, they find career progression to be more difficult (European Commission/EACEA/Eurydice, 2021).

2. Early childhood education and care

Despite continuing to expand early education and care (ECEC) capacity, Germany still has significant unmet demand for childcare. In 2021, it had 3.8 million approved ECEC places, 84 000 more than the previous year (ABBE, 2022)⁷. In 2021, 93.1% of children between 3 and school age attended ECEC, slightly above the EU average (92.5%) but below the EU-level target of 96%⁸. In 2021, 28.9% of all children in ECEC had a migration background of which 67% did not speak German at home (BMFSJ, 2022). The share of under 3-year-olds in the population has increased by 16% over the last decade (ABBE, 2022). Although the absolute number of children under 3 in formal childcare has increased, its share has remained stable over the last 7 years at around 30%. A sudden drop to 23.9% in 2022⁹ might be a statistical outlier as national register-based data show a participation rate of 34.4% in 2021 (BMFSJ, 2022a). The Barcelona target for Germany for 2030 is to reach 40.4%. Since 2013, all children above the age of one have a legal right to a place in ECEC (Bildungsserver). In 2021, 44% of parents of under 3-year-olds requested an ECEC place in western Laender, but only 31% got a place. A study from the German Youth Institute and the Technical University Dortmund (2020) expects the authorities to be able to meet this legal obligation only in 2025 in the east and in 2028 in the west. To achieve it, between 244 000 and 310 000 additional places for under 3-year-olds only in West Germany and between 158 000 and 272 000 places for 3 to 6-year-olds are needed in all Germany by 2030 (BMFSJ, 2022a).

Figure 1: Developments in the low achievement rate in reading 2011-2021, PIRLS

Germany aims to provide equal conditions for all children, but differences remain in service quality. Germany continues to take significant measures to improve the quality of ECEC services. On top of federal investments of EUR 5.5 billion to support the Laender between 2019 and 2022 (Gute KiTa Gesetz), it is investing EUR 4 billion in 2023 and 2024 (KiTa Qualitätsgesetz). The situation differs by Laender and regions, including the quality of services (ABBE, 2022; Bock-Famulla, K. 2021). The new quality initiative supports Laender in seven priority areas, with a strong focus on creating more equal conditions for all children in ECEC (BMFSFJ 2023). The priorities are: (1) for supply to match demand, (2) staff/child ratio, (3) recruiting and retaining qualified staff, (4) leadership, (5) child development, (6) language education and (7) strengthening childcare. It is implemented through individual agreements between the federal level and the Laender. According to the annual monitoring report, Germany has made some progress in several quality areas including staff/child ratios and increasing the number of managers (BMFSFJ 2022). However, the monitoring report found that overall, managers lacked time to complete all their legally required tasks (BMFSFJ, 2022). A recent study involving 5 387 ECEC managers confirmed the perceived mismatch. The polled managers also found that staff shortages are worsening. The workload of existing staff compounded by illness and absenteeism continues to worsen year-on-year, which has a negative impact on staff/child ratios (Schieler, 2023). The current government agreement aims to provide equal conditions and quality standards for early childhood education and care at federal level from 2025 onwards.

3. School education

The rate of students leaving education and training early in Germany has deteriorated over time. In contrast to the EU trend of the early school leaving rate falling (to 9.6%), Germany’s rate increased from 10.5% in 2012 by 1.7 pps to 12.2% in 2022, substantially above the EU-level target of below 9%. It had stabilised at around 10%, but after methodological adjustments in 2021 it rose to 12.5%, considerably above (by 2.6 pps) the EU average in 2022. The rate for young men (13.7%) is 3 pps higher than for women (10.7%) and this gender gap has nearly tripled in ten years (1.2 pp in 2012). Young people with low-educated parents leave education early seven times more often than their peers with highly educated parents (European Commission, 2022). And while the rate for German-born 18 to 24-year-olds was 9.4% in 2022, it was much higher for foreign-born young people (28.8%)¹⁰.

Education outcomes have worsened and there have been no improvements to the negative impact of student low socio-economic and/or migrant background.The International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) is an international study measuring every five years the education outcomes in reading of fourth graders. In 2021, German pupils scored 524 points, just below the EU-19 average (-3 points). Similarly, to most EU education systems, the results were worse than in both 2016 and 2011. Worryingly, the rate of underperformance has continued to rise from 15% in 2011 to 19% in 2016 and 25% in 2021, while top performance contracted in 2021 to 8%. The gap between boys' and girls' performance at 15 points is wider than the EU average (11.8) and has almost doubled since 2011 (8-point difference). The performance gap between young pupils from higher and lower socio-economic status is 91 points; 11 points above the EU average (European Commission, 2023). Also, the large number of recently arrived refugees might need to be taken into account.

There is a stronger correlation between bullying and school performance in Germany than in other EU countries. German young pupils who experience a low feeling of belonging to their school perform on average lower than their peers (-41 points); the negative correlation with performance is also comparatively stronger (PIRLS). Bullying also seems to have a striking impact in Germany¹¹. The negative correlation between performance and bullying is the highest in all participating countries (PIRLS). A similar link can be observed for cyberbullying (PIRLS).

Good coordination between the federal level and the Laender is important to reach the goals of federal funding. As the Laender are responsible for their school education systems, the scope for federal funding is limited to specific purposes. Examples are federal support for digitalisation (EUR 5.5 billion for the Digitalpakt Schule (Digital Pact for Schools) in 2019 and 2020) or the programme ‘Lesestart’ (Start reading), which provides funding for a nationwide early language and reading scheme for families with young children (Stiftung Lesen). Germany extended this latter scheme to refugees in refugee centres (BMBF, 2021). An initial assessment made in September 2022 of the federal programme “Catching up after Corona for children and young people”, which provided financial support of EUR 1 billion for 2021 to 2022, found that the goals identified by the StäwiKo (2021) had been reached only to a limited extent (Helbig, 2022). Due to a lack of focus, support did not adequately reach young children and pupils from a disadvantaged and/or migrant background who needed it most.

A new federal programme targeting disadvantaged pupils is under way. The Federal Minister of Education and the Laender have agreed on the key points of a new programme entitled “Startchancen” to provide targeted educational support to all children and young people regardless of their parents’ social situation. The programme is expected to kick off at the start of the school year 2024-25 and will run for ten years. The Federal Government wants to provide the Laender with an additional one billion euros per year. The Laender are expected to match these federal funds. The programme is envisaged to target up to 4 000 schools (about 10% of all German schools). It aims to better equip schools, enhance needs-based school and teaching development, and strengthen multi-professional teams. The “Startchancen” programme is expected to make a major contribution towards enhancing skills development among children and adolescents and thereby towards greater equality of opportunity in education."

4. Vocational education and training

Germany is modernising its vocational education and training (VET) system. The country prepared a national implementation plan in response to the Council Recommendation on VET and the Osnabrück Declaration. The aim of the plan is to promote integration and access to training and the labour market, to support the ecological and technological transformation and contribute to a future-proof VET policy. It aims to support the digital transformation and VET strategies for a digital education and training area and ensure excellence in VET and higher-level VET.

Germany is increasing the attractiveness of VET. The Excellence Initiative for Vocational Education and Training (BMBF, 2023), started in 2022, aims to boost the attractiveness of VET by improving career chances and vocational career guidance and by providing young people opportunities for international exchanges. It also provided financial support for innovative content and modern initial VET (IVET) and continued VET (CVET) infrastructure. The Training Cluster 4.0 in the Lignite Regions¹² supports structural changes in three lignite regions enabling in-company training, helping young people to avoid bottleneck occupations.

In addition, in 2022 the country increased subsidies to reach 80% of pre-COVID levels supporting VET mobility funded by Erasmus+. The new mobility scheme Weltwalz (SCIVET, 2022) offers young craftspeople an opportunity to gain experience in international cooperation in Rwanda, Uganda, South Africa and in Georgia. The support centre for transnational mobility in VET informs institutions and organisations about opportunities to support international apprentice mobility and potential opportunities.

Germany has put in place specific measures for VET teachers and trainers¹³.The platform Entrepreneurial Spirit in Schools (2022) is specifically designed for teachers in vocational schools and includes regular continuing professional development for VET teachers and e-learning opportunities on integrating entrepreneurship in teaching. The web portal includes a wide range of activities, materials and e-learning for teaching staff.

5. Higher education

Germany has potential to increase tertiary education attainment significantly, but it still lags behind. From 2012 to 2022, Germany increased tertiary education attainment (TEA) by 8.2 pps, slightly above the EU average increase of 7.9 pps¹⁴. At 37.1%, Germany is still 4.9 pps behind the EU-27 average (42%) and significantly below the 45% EU-level target for 2030. The relatively low attainment rate can partly be linked to the strong and important dual VET system¹⁵. At 56.1%, Berlin continues to boast the highest tertiary education attainment level in Germany, up by 18.3 pps since 2012. Brandenburg had the second strongest increase, 13.2 pps to reach 32.1% in 2022. Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern only reached 20.6% in 2022, less than half the level in Berlin¹⁶.

Tertiary education attainment levels are lower for young people born in a foreign country; the gender gap in tertiary education attainment is narrow. There is less of a difference between German and foreign-born students in tertiary education attainment than the EU average. In Germany in 2022, 32.5% of 25-to-34-year-olds from another EU country, 34.5% from a non-EU foreign country and 38.2% born in Germany hold a tertiary education degree. The ratios at EU level were 39.5%, 35.7% and 43% in 2022. In Germany, nearly as many young men as young women have completed higher education. The gender gap has been persistently the lowest in the EU. At 4.6 pps in 2022 it was about a third of the EU average (11.1 pps) and has barely increased since 2012 (+0.4 pp)¹⁷.

Germany has the largest share of science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) graduates among all graduates. The share of STEM graduates in 2020 was 35.8% (10.9 pps above the EU average). In 2021, like in previous years, most graduates choose engineering and manufacturing (22%), followed by 9.5% studying natural science and mathematics and only 4.5% studying IT and education technology. At EU level, the average share is 16.1%, 6.4% and 3.44% respectively. Although Germany still excels in overall STEM graduates, the number of graduates in information and communication technologies is only slowly increasing (0.6 pp between 2016 and 2021 to 5.1%). Individual ISCED levels indicate that the German advantage in all STEM subjects compared to the EU narrows as the education level rises¹⁸.

Education is generally well attuned to labour market needs. The employment rates of recent graduates are high. For tertiary education (ISCED 5-8), it reached 94.4% in 2022 (against the EU average of 86.7%), one of the highest rates in the EU. At the same time, Germany is one of the five countries (Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal) where the advantage of tertiary graduates accessing the labour market is minimal (1.1pp) compared to upper secondary VET graduates. In 2022, 93.3% of graduates from secondary VET were employed (up 3.9 pps compared to 2016). However, graduates from secondary general education have a significantly harder time joining the labour market, with an employment rate of 64.2% (against the EU average of 66.4%).

Compared with the European average, German students are quite mobile. While in most Member States less than 10% of tertiary students have spent time abroad, 11.2% did so 2021 in Germany. These figures have hardly changed since pre-COVID levels (in 2019: 11.8%), unlike the study mobility rate, which fell significantly by 3.5 pps since 2018¹⁹. Women are generally more mobile than male students.

Figure 2: Graduate credit mobility rates, 2019 and 2021

6. Adult learning

Adult education is a large educational sector in Germany ²⁰, but it faces staff shortages, an ageing workforce, low incomes and low job security. In-company continuing education remains the largest segment of adult education in Germany. Adult educators are on average highly qualified with about three quarters holding an academic degree and a high proportion of women educators 63%. About one quarter of the staff in adult education and training has a migrant background, the highest percentage of all education sectors. However, ageing is straining the workforce. Low incomes and low job security for large parts of the staff often combined with (self-) employment result in precarious working conditions. The shortage of training staff is especially visible in language and integration courses for migrants.

Despite comfortably achieving the EU targets on continuing education, participation in adult learning remains rather stable and unequal. Adults with low educational achievement, migrants, unemployed people and adults with low basic skills have a significantly lower participation rate than average. Unequal participation related to former formal education achievement remains a major challenge for the adult education system in Germany. Educational opportunities remain strongly linked to socio-economic background and inequality in education may continue to increase.

Two major policy frameworks seek to address the challenges in adult education. The National Skills Strategy (Nationale Weiterbildungsstrategie) and the National Decade for Literacy and Basic Education