Education and Training Monitor 2023

1. The teaching profession

Teacher shortages are severe across the education system and have been getting worse in recent years. Shortages concern primary, secondary, higher and vocational education and are especially acute in sciences and mathematics. In October 2017, 7 of the 15 Estonian counties reported teacher shortages at secondary schools. This number increased to 14 counties five years later (Estonian Unemployment Insurance Fund). The share of qualified teachers also indicates shortages: in general education, the share of fully qualified teachers (i.e. with a Master’s degree and pedagogic competences) has decreased, especially for teachers under 30 (Figure 1). The shortage of support specialists (e.g. speech therapists, social workers and psychologists) is also acute. A report by the national court of auditors showed that in almost a third of kindergartens and a quarter of basic schools, children and teens received inadequate or no support in 2019/2020 (Riigikontroll, 2020). However, shortages of kindergarten teachers are slightly less severe, as the supply of new entrants is higher compared to other educational levels.

The teacher population is ageing and many new teachers are leaving the profession. Based on the estimates of the Estonian jobs and skills forecasting system OSKA, 34% of teachers will retire in the coming 10 years¹, some 1 000 staff. Consequently, the age-related replacement need is high: around 770 new staff in education are needed every year, but this number cannot be supplied by the education system. The education sector has the largest gap between new labour demand and supply, in comparison with other sectors (Rosenblad, Leoma, & Krusell, 2022). Additionally, around 50% of new teachers leave the profession within the first 5 years (Ministry of Education and Research, 2021). Working conditions for new teachers are challenging: they teach the same amount of hours as experienced teachers, while preparing lessons takes them much longer. The implementation of an induction programme, designed to ease starting work as a teacher, strongly depends on each school. Although the student population is forecast to decline, this alone will not solve the shortages.

Figure 1: Teachers in general education schools up to 30 years of age, according to compliance with qualification requirements, from 2008/2009 to 2021/2022

The root causes for the shortages are partly specific to teaching, partly in line with broader trends. Teachers and aspiring teachers mention the following difficulties specific to their profession: low salaries, stress and lack of a work-life balance, few career and development opportunities, varying quality of school leadership and varying degree of professional support for teachers (Ministry of Education and Research, 2021; Eesti Uuringukeskus, 2021). Broader labour market trends also play a role: Frequent job changes are common among jobholders at the beginning of their careers and new teachers do not have a higher turnover rate than other entry-level professionals (Rootalu, 2022).² However, in the context of shortages and ageing, the teaching profession particularly struggles to cope with such trends.

Various policies are in place to address the reasons for teacher shortages and dropout. A teacher action plan was adopted in 2022 to improve the working conditions, training and career progression of teachers and is still being implemented; it also covers support specialists, school leaders and school managers (Ministry of Education and Research, 2021). The Education Ministry sees developing leadership quality and organisational culture as key to improving the reputation of the teaching profession, bringing new teachers into schools and giving them job security. Over 400 new study places for teacher and support specialist students will be opened at Tallinn and Tartu universities in 2023 (Ministry of Education and Research, 2023d). It is also planned that teacher training and support specialist students will receive a monthly scholarship of EUR 400 (Ministry of Education and Research, 2023b). A flexible pathway into the profession (used by many unqualified teachers) is to apply for the teacher profession through the national occupational qualifications system or acquiring micro-credits. A new career model for teachers is also being developed.

The government is on track to reach its salary goals if increases continue at the same pace. The government’s aim is to raise salaries to 120% of the national average wage by 2027 (Government of Estonia, 2023). In 2023, teachers received a substantial pay rise of 23.9% (inflation was also high in 2022, at 19.4%) (Ministry of Education and Research, 2022b). Yet teachers generally earn less than other tertiary educated workers: for example, lower secondary teachers earn 9.7% less than other university graduates (OECD, 2022).

Teacher shortages are part of the broader challenge of skills shortages in Estonia and could exacerbate the issue. Skills shortages in science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM) make it more difficult to recruit teachers in these fields. At the same time, the shortage and ageing of science and mathematics teachers might exacerbate these skills shortages. Estonia generally has fewer people entering the labour market than those leaving it (Rosenblad, Leoma, & Krusell, 2022). Although a high share of the population holds a higher education degree (see Section 6), there is strong competition for graduates, as recruitment needs are high also in other sectors, such as medicine or informatics.

2. Early childhood education and care

Participation in early childhood education and care is increasing again for under-3-year-olds, while enrolment rates for children between 3 and primary school age remained stable. The participation of under-3-year-olds in formal childcare rose to 33.7% in 2022 (EU average: 35.7%)³, possibly due to the end of the Covid pandemic, during which participation was much lower. Participation of children between 3 years and the starting age of compulsory education (7 years) has been stable in the last 5 years. It stood at 91.5% in 2022, somewhat below the EU average of 92.5% and the EU-level target of 96% by 2030⁴.

Capacity shortages persist. Parents have the right to a place in a municipal kindergarten for their children from 18 months on. Places in private institutions can be offered to parents by municipalities (and subsidised by them) if no place in a public kindergarten is available, but only for children below the age of 3 and if parents agree. In February 2023, the Estonian Supreme Court ruled that many local governments do not provide enough kindergarten places despite the legal requirement to do so, and that the state and local governments must find solutions together (Riigikohus, 2023). It was the third ruling of this kind. Currently, parents often prefer public kindergartens to private ones both for quality and costs reasons. Compared to other EU countries, the share of children going to private institutions is however small (4% vs. 34% in the EU on average)⁵.

A planned reform could help alleviate capacity shortages. Aligning the quality requirements of public and private early childhood education and care is one of the main aims of a reform project. The draft law aims to create an integrated early childhood education and care system with common quality standards, including a common curriculum. However, the law has not yet been adopted (Riigikogu, 2022a). Common quality standards could help alleviate capacity shortages by making the different types of childcare equally attractive. Integrated early childhood education and care systems⁶ have been found to support greater continuity for children, parents and staff regarding access, regulations and funding and staffing regimes. Integrated systems can promote greater quality and consistency across different types of childcare (OECD, 2020).

In 2023, salaries of pre-school teachers increased, with both local municipalities and the state paying for the rise. In line with the nominal increase in teachers’ salaries (+23.9% in 2023), local governments must raise kindergarten teachers’ salaries to 90% of the base salary of schoolteachers, and to 100% if they have a Master’s degree. The state provides salary subsidies for kindergarten teachers’ salaries, provided that local governments keep up with the salary increase for schoolteachers. Matching the state subsidies with their own resources is financially difficult for some municipalities and has led to increased kindergarten fees in some cases.

The transition to a fully Estonian speaking pre-primary education system will start in autumn 2024. In its coalition agreement, the government sets out a plan to give every child in pre-school childcare the possibility to get language support to learn Estonian (Government of Estonia, 2023). Necessary legal changes to the Pre-School Childcare Institutions Act were made in March 2023 (Ministry of Education and Research, 2023f).

3. School education

More than one in ten young people leave the education and training system with very low or no qualifications, and almost twice as many boys than girls. Since 2020, this figure is again on the rise compared to previous years. While the rate remained stable for girls (7.6% in 2021, 7.5% in 2022), the rate for boys increased (from 12% in 2021 to 14.3% in 2022), leading to a very high gender gap in EU comparison (Figure 2)⁷. Gender gaps throughout the education system are significant in Estonia, including at the level of tertiary education⁸ (European Commission, 2022).

Figure 2: Gender gap (boys - girls) in early leaving from education and training rates, 2012 and 2022 (percentage points difference)

Measures to reduce early leaving aim to increase the motivation of all learners to continue education. The Education Ministry sees the integration of formal and non-formal education as key to creating an environment in which all learners can succeed (see Box 1). Its approach to reduce early leaving also includes supporting pupils with special educational needs and improving the school climate. The negative impact of bullying on school performance, self-esteem and well-being is widely known. A study commissioned by the Ministry found that boys are more frequently authors and victims of bullying than girls (except cyberbullying). The study recommended a systematic approach to monitoring and preventing bullying in all schools, as this is currently not the case (Praxis, 2022). Additionally, a new national curriculum is designed to increase learners’ motivation and autonomy, and the government intends to raise the mandatory school age to 18 years (obligation to attend school or other training) (Government of Estonia, 2023). This latter measure will require additional funding and teachers. Finally, factors outside of school also matter. Under the youth guarantee action plan, which receives funding from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility, the Education Ministry gives grants to local governments for projects providing support services to disadvantaged children and young people to prevent early school leaving and promote inclusion in education (Ministry of Social Affairs, 2022).

An updated national curriculum concentrates on transversal competences and teachers’ and learners’ autonomy. In February 2023, the government adopted amended national curricula for primary and secondary education. The updated curricula aim to give teachers more autonomy to reach the defined learning outcomes and focus on the development of transversal competences. Updated subject field syllabuses promote the integration of subjects and the creation of meaningful connections between them. The new curricula will be implemented as of the school year 2024/25; schools develop their own curriculum based on the national one (Ministry of Education and Research, 2023a).

Estonia aims to complete the transition to Estonian-language education already by 2030, 5 years earlier than previously planned. Starting from 2024/25, schools will gradually use Estonian as the sole language of instruction. The Estonian Parliament has adopted the required amendments to the relevant education acts; and the government has put in place an action plan to support the language transition, covering continuous training, educational materials and salary top-ups for teachers teaching in certain regions (Ministry of Education and Research, 2022d). The state supports local governments, teachers and parents with various measures such as information sessions, language classes and a network of counsellors. According to the Ministry, around 10% of teachers currently do not have sufficient language skills to teach in Estonian. Both the transition to a fully Estonian-language education system and the integration of Ukrainian refugees require additional training for teachers on teaching in multilingual and multicultural classrooms.

In early 2023, the Education and Environment Ministries jointly adopted a renewed action plan for environmental education. The aim of the plan is to integrate sustainability topics in all levels of education and subjects and to encourage cooperation between educational institutions, environmental education centres and communities. The development of a comprehensive formal quality system for environmental education centres is also planned, including the assessment of the quality of educational programmes, the implementation of a competence model for teachers and trainers, the formulation of centres' quality criteria and the development of an accreditation system for long-term funding of the centres. In addition, attention is paid to the energy efficiency of educational institutions (Ministry of the Environment, 2022). A country-specific recommendation underlined the need for all Member States to step up policy efforts aimed at providing and acquiring the skills and competences needed for the green transition (Council of the EU, 2023).

4. Vocational education and training

The attractiveness of vocational education and training (VET) has remained rather stable in recent years. In 2021, 45.1% of pupils in upper secondary education were enrolled in vocational programmes, compared to the EU average of 52.1%.⁹ In 2022, 75.1% of recent VET graduates (20-34) were employed (whereas the EU average is 79.7%)¹⁰. Most recent graduates (20-34) benefited from work-based learning (76.1% in 2022, compared to 60.8% on average in the EU).¹¹

Estonia is addressing challenges in VET through its national implementation plan for the Council Recommendation on VET. According to the plan, the long-term challenges include the need to raise the quality of VET and adapt the VET offer to the changes in the economy and the labour market, responding to and forecasting the needs of employers; raise the popularity of VET among young people; decrease the rate of early leaving from VET; and reduce the share of adults without professional education or with outdated skills (Ministry of Education and Research, 2022e).

Estonia continues to tackle early school leaving from VET by offering more flexibility and supports vulnerable learners. Since 2021/22, a new type of vocational training, “the choice of profession curriculum”, was implemented in 23 VET schools. Learners can design their learning paths according to their needs and abilities, by learning in smaller modules or ‘learning bites’, which are taken into account as part of the formal curriculum. Additionally, measures to support learners with special educational needs and learners with migrant backgrounds were adopted in 2022 (Riigi Teataja, 2022). They enable the transition to Estonian-language instruction in VET for students with migrant backgrounds and students whose first language is not Estonian.

International opportunities and entrepreneurship in VET are strengthened. To monitor and expand the use of these opportunities, a national ‘mobility indicator’ was developed to measure the share of VET graduates who have studied outside their home institution for at least 2 weeks during their studies. In 2022, VET schools started collecting and submitting data via the e-learning management system “Tahvel”. With the support of the European Social Fund, all Estonian VET schools promoted entrepreneurship education in 2022 by updating their curricula. An e-course for entrepreneurship and career studies was developed, in addition to an optional entrepreneurship education e-course for VET students.

5. Higher education

Tertiary educational attainment could be increased by reducing the drop-out rate and motivating more young men to study. In 2022, 43.9% of Estonians between 25 and 34 held a university degree¹² (EU average: 42%), but the high gender gap remains a concern (20.8 pps difference in favour of women in 2022, EU average: 11.1 pps). Given Estonia’s skills shortages, more higher education graduates are needed: the jobs and skills forecasting system OSKA estimates the labour market need for higher education graduates to be 50% higher than the supply (Rosenblad, Leoma, & Krusell, 2022). In addition, the drop-out rate from higher education is relatively high; potentially because it is difficult to cover living costs while studying (70% of students work, Haugas et al., 2023) and because the wage premium for tertiary-educated workers is lower than in the OECD on average (OECD, 2022; Arenguseire Keskus, 2022).

Job security and pay levels for higher education staff are relatively low. Once their higher level of educational attainment is accounted for, higher education staff do not earn higher salaries than teachers at lower levels of education (OECD, 2022). Only around 45% have a permanent contract (OECD, 2023, forthcoming). Ageing is also a concern: 28.8% of academic staff are over 55 years old, and 11.2% over 65 (EU average: 24.,6% and 5.1%, respectively)¹³. A substantial part of academics’ salaries consists of successful applications for project funding, which is however limited and less sustainable. Based on national legislation, Estonian higher education institutions decide on the salaries, grading structures and working conditions of staff. Some of the recent funding increase may be used to raise salaries.

Higher education received a funding increase, but the debate on more systemic changes to the funding model continues. The 2022 administrative agreements with universities were only signed in October 2022, due to the unprecedented refusal by universities to accept the proposed level of funding. Finally, universities secured an increase in their operating support of 15% during 2022-2025, bringing higher education spending above 1% of GDP. They had asked for 1.5%, arguing that this level of funding was needed to compensate for previous underfunding. To reduce universities’ expenses, restrictions on free tuition were adopted, for example in certain cases when students change study programme or fail to complete it (Ministry of Education and Research, 2023c). Critics argue that the funding issue remains systemic, and that student support needs to be increased. They maintain that the practice of restricting free tuition is penalising students and will reduce the number of urgently needed tertiary education graduates. From 2023/24 on, needs-based tuition assistance rates for students with lower financial means will double (Ministry of Education and Research, 2023e).

A legal framework for micro-credentials is under preparation, with quality assurance being one of the main issues. According to the amendments to the Adult Education Act proposed by the Education Ministry, higher education and VET institutions can offer micro-credentials in the study fields for which they have been granted the right to conduct studies; other continuing education institutions can also offer micro-credentials if they successfully pass a quality assessment. A micro-credential should meet four criteria: having a volume of 6-30 ECTS, teaching labour-market relevant skills, being developed together with employers and being offered by one of the institutions mentioned above (Ministry of Education and Research, 2022c). Micro-credentials are seen as an important tool for addressing skills shortages; they also allow higher education institutions to raise additional funds. They are targeted at both highly educated professionals and vulnerable groups (for example people with low levels of education who are less active in lifelong learning). However, in practice, only the first target group is effectively reached by micro-credentials; involving the latter group would require a special strategy to increase their participation (Kivistik et al., 2021).

6. Adult learning

Efforts are being made to include all groups of learners in adult education, to maintain the positive trend of the last decade. Estonia’s participation in adult learning has increased from 12.6% in 2013 to 21.1% in 2022, one of the highest shares in the EU¹⁴. Estonia aims to increase this share to 25% of adults having participated in learning activities in the previous 4 weeks by 2035. The country has also made a commitment to contribute to the EU headline target by aiming to have 52.3% of adults participating in learning every year by 2030. However, effort is necessary to reduce learning gaps for disadvantaged groups such as low-skilled adults, migrants and older adults, as well as to reduce gender differences in learning pathways (Government of Estonia, 2021). The rise of varied and flexible learning and career pathways provides new opportunities for flexible learning participation for different groups in society.

Formal education for adults wishing to acquire upper secondary education is undergoing a major reform. Adult education colleges are being integrated into or combined with large gymnasiums offering secondary education to young people or vocational education institutions. This reform might have significant implications for adult learning participation. Estonia aims to increase the share of people aged 20-24 with upper secondary education to 90% by 2035 (in 2019 it was 84.8%¹⁵).

Estonia is reforming its qualification system from a professional standards-based system towards a more flexible skills-based approach. The reform aims to improve the linkages between the education system and the labour market and provide individuals with digital tools to identify the necessary skills for their jobs and how to obtain them (Ministry of Education and Research, 2022f). This tool will provide information on different types of learning, including formal and non-formal education and micro-credentials, and provide an overview of an individual’s skills profile and suitability for different professional careers. The project is financed by the ESF+ and is taking place from 2022-2029¹⁶.

Estonia will provide support for strengthening digital and green skills relevant for adult education (similarly to VET), under its recovery and resilience plan. In 2022/2023, it has adopted government decrees for “conditions of support” for the green and digital skills action plans. This support includes the development of VET and higher education curricula and micro-credentials, as well as providing training opportunities. In the area of green skills, consortia and working groups have been established in 2022/2023 to develop new modules of formal education curricula. An ambitious aim has been set to increase the share of adults aged 16-74 with higher-than-basic digital skills from 37% in 2019 to 60% by 2035 (Government of Estonia, 2021).