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New methods for timely estimates
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New methods for timely estimates

Nowcasting euro area GDP growth using quantile regression : 2020 edition

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This paper uses an application to explore the utility of quantile regression methods in producing (density) nowcasts. Our quantile regression modelling strategy is designed to reflect important nowcasting features, namely the use of mixed-frequency data, the ragged-edge and increasingly large numbers of indicators (big data). An unrestricted mixed data sampling strategy within a Bayesian quantile regression is used to accommodate a large mixed frequency dataset when nowcasting; we use a shrinkage prior to avoid parameter proliferation in what becomes a large dimensional quantile regression. In an application to euro area GDP growth, using over 400 mixed frequency indicators, we find that the quantile regression approach does not produce as accurate density nowcasts overall as the density combination approach of Mazzi et al. (2014) unless the indicators are orthogonalised and shrunk to a smaller number. The quantile regression approach overstates the uncertainties associated with GDP growth. This is reflected by high probability estimates of GDP at Risk (i.e. negative GDP growth) even during the period of strong GDP growth prior to the global financial crisis. However, when the nowcasts are formed early, at 30 or 15 days before the end of the quarter of interest, the quantile regression approach is better able to detect the ensuing recession than the density combination approach.
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ISSN 2315-0807
ISBN 978-92-76-16865-2
DOI 10.2785/26603
Kataloški broj KS-TC-20-004-EN-N
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ISSN 2315-0807 ISBN 978-92-76-16865-2 DOI 10.2785/26603 Kataloški broj KS-TC-20-004-EN-N
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