For a better user experience please update your browser or use Chrome or Firefox browser.
Utilities
Publication detail
HomeEU challenges of reducing fossil fuel use in buildings
Publication metadata
Energy scenarios that achieve a reduction of around 55% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to 1990, endorse a rapid reduction of fossil fuel use in buildings in the EU. On average, these scenarios foresee a 60% reduction in oil and coal use and a 30% reduction in natural gas use in all buildings by 2030 compared to 2019. The main challenge is that these reductions in fossil fuel use and related greenhouse gas emissions must happen soon. Taking the energy scenarios together with the envelope renovation ambition in the Renovation Wave strategy, we have projected the necessary evolution of heating in buildings to meet our 2030 climate goals. Our analysis quantifies the steps needed to support the conclusion of the Renovation Wave strategy that fossil fuels will disappear from heating and cooling. As mentioned in the Renovation Wave strategy, the EU will at least double the annual energy renovation rate of buildings by 2030. On the basis of our analysis, we conclude that envelope renovation rates may need to be differentiated based on the carbon intensity of heating systems. Before 2030, envelope renovation rates need to increase from around 1.3% currently to 2.0% for dwellings with non-fossil fuel heating, to 2.5% for dwellings currently using natural gas and to 3.3% for dwellings currently using oil and coal. After 2030, the projected envelope renovation rate could exceed 5% for dwellings currently using oil and coal. If improvements are mainly to the thermal integrity of buildings, a reduction in heat demand of around 15% can be achieved by 2030. However, the reduction of oil use needs to be four times as high (-60%), and natural gas use twice as high (-30%), so envelope renovations need to be complemented with renovations that decarbonise heating systems, switching them away from fossil fuel. Our study quantifies the extent of renovation needed for switching heating systems from fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives. By 2030, at least 40 million existing dwellings should switch their fossil fuel boilers to low carbon heating alternatives, mostly heat pumps. In the period 2026-2030, our analysis shows that renovations would need to introduce low-carbon heating systems into an average 2.5% of stock every year. More than 3% of dwellings currently using natural gas would need to switch fuel, on average, every year from 2025. For dwellings currently using oil and coal, the switch rate would need to be more than 7%. For oil, the required rate is double the currently observed rate of replacement which includes today’s like-with-like replacements (e.g. an old oil boiler replaced with a new oil boiler) and means that simply stopping the installation of new oil or coal heating devices would not be enough. The extent of the decarbonisation required of heating systems is such that any additional envelope renovation for dwellings currently using fossil fuel also entails a switch to low-carbon heating systems. In fact, any renovations not involving a fuel switch to low-carbon heating should be avoided after around 2025 for dwellings currently using oil or coal, and soon after 2030 for dwellings using natural gas. We provide important scientific evidence regarding the timing of phasing out new fossil fuel boilers in residential buildings and the impact if we delay action. Even when considering state-of-the-art technology, replacing fossil fuel boilers with newer fossil fuel boilers should be discontinued as soon as possible for oil and between 2025 and 2030 for natural gas. As a consequence, many more households should participate in energy or heating system renovations: around 30% of EU households by 2030 and more than 85% by 2050
- Published:
- Themes: Industry — Enterprise — Services , Energy policy
- Subject: adaptation to climate change , building , carbon capture and storage , energy technology , energy use , EU energy policy , fossil fuel , greenhouse gas , heating , reduction of gas emissions , report
|
PDF
|
|||
| ISSN 1831-9424 | ISBN 978-92-76-45223-2 | DOI 10.2760/85088 | Catalogue number KJ-NA-30922-EN-N |
- Released on EU publications website:
Document viewer
Note:
The publication cannot be displayed in the document viewer. Open web version
You may access it from: Download and languages