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HomeThe ECB survey of professional forecasters. Second quarter of 2025, April 2025
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In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2025, expectations for headline HICP inflation were revised slightly upwards for 2025 and 2026 but remained unchanged for 2027 and the longer-term. At the same time, core inflation expectations, as measured by the HICP excluding energy and food (HICPX), were revised up slightly for all horizons. Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026 and 2027. These expectations represent a 0.1 percentage point upward revision for 2025 and 2026 but no change for 2027. Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2029) were unchanged at 2.0%. Expectations for HICPX were revised up by 0.1 percentage points for all horizons, including the longer term (to 2.0%). Respondents continued to expect a gradual strengthening of real GDP growth – from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.2% and 1.4% in 2026 and 2027, respectively. These figures were revised downwards by 0.1 percentage points for both 2025 and 2026, while expectations for growth in 2027 were revised upwards. Longer-term GDP growth expectations were unchanged at 1.3%. The trajectory of respondents’ unemployment rate expectations was revised down slightly across all horizons.
- Published:
- Corporate author(s): European Central Bank
- Themes: Economy — Finance
- Subject: bank , economic analysis , euro area , European Central Bank , loan , serial publication
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| ISSN 2363-3670 | ISBN 978-92-899-7099-0 | DOI 10.2866/8864963 | Catalogue number QB-01-25-051-EN-N |
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| ISSN 2363-3670 | ISBN 978-92-899-7100-3 | DOI 10.2866/2138678 | Catalogue number QB-01-25-051-EN-Q |
- Released on EU publications website:
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