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Global warming and human impacts of heat and cold extremes in the EU
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Global warming and human impacts of heat and cold extremes in the EU

JRC PESETA IV project : Task 11

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During intense heatwaves in June and July 2019, all-time temperature records were broken in many locations in Europe. These events are projected to happen more frequently and become more intense with climate change. Projections show that the number of citizens in the EU and UK exposed to heatwaves will grow from 10 million/year (average 1981-2010) to nearly 300 million/year, or more than half the EU population, in a scenario with 3°C global average warming by the end of this century. In case of no adaptation this could result in 96,000 fatalities/year from extreme heat, compared to 2,750 annual deaths at present. Curbing global warming to 1.5°C would limit mortality from extreme heat to around 30,000 fatalities/year. The rise in exposure to and projected fatalities from extreme heat is most pronounced in southern Europe. Milder winters will reduce significantly exposure to and fatalities from extreme cold, nearly 10-fold with 3°C global average warming by the end of this century. Spells of several consecutive days of unusually high or cold temperatures can have considerable impact on people. Since 1980, heat and cold waves have resulted in nearly 90,000 fatalities in Europe. A large majority of the reported fatalities from temperature extremes relate to heatwaves. The more vulnerable are older people and those with diseases who have reduced physiological and behavioural capacity for thermoregulation, as well as the poor who have less means for private extreme temperature mitigation (e.g. through air conditioning or thermal insulation).
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