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Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context
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Analysis of developments in EU capital flows in the global context

Third annual report : executive summary

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The purpose of our report is to provide a comprehensive overview of capital movements in Europe in a global context. Free movement of capital, which is one of the four fundamental economic freedoms of the European Union, can enhance welfare if it leads to better allocation of financial and productive resources. However, it can also be a source of vulnerability, with far-reaching spillovers. Monitoring and assessing capital flows is therefore crucial for policymakers, market participants and analysts. Chapter one introduces the topic and presents the outline of our report. Chapter two analyses global capital flows. We highlight several key developments. - Global gross capital flows continue remain at a subdued level compared to the pre-crisis period. However, among the three main components, foreign direct investment (FDI) declined the least and while such flows are below the 2005-07 values, the 2013-15 average was actually higher than in 2002-04. In contrast, gross portfolio investment in 2013-15 was about half of what it was in 2005-07 and was also below values observed in 2002-04. Gross other investments (which mostly comprise cross-border loans) fell even more and in several quarters during 2012-15, there was a retrenchment of earlier other investment flows. These developments highlight that FDI remained more stable than other capital flows during the global reduction of gross flows in the aftermath of the 2007-08 global financial and economic crisis. - However, the latest three quarters at the time of writing (2015Q4- 2016Q2) saw a reduction in global FDI flows. There was a significant retrenchment of other investments in 2015Q5, though in the first two quarters of 2016 other investments expanded again somewhat. It needs to be seen whether these developments were a temporary setback to global capital flows, or the beginning of a major slowdown in global FDI and other capital flows.
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