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Syria’s electricity sector after a decade of war
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Syria’s electricity sector after a decade of war

A comprehensive assessment

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Before the 2011 conflict, Syria’s electricity infrastructure was barely functional. There were high production and transmission losses with frequent load shedding, especially in the summer. Syria had poor structural and performance indicators: power losses stood at nearly 26% and there were 43 days of power outage per year. Tariffs were low due to heavy government subsidies. However, ten years of war has worsened matters considerably. Per capita consumption of state electricity is 15% of what it was in 2010. For instance, in the first half of 2021, Aleppo had ten-hours of rationing for every hour or half an hour of power; Damascus had, instead, five “dead” hours for one hour of electricity. The damage to the grid and substations can be fixed at reasonable rates with local expertise. This is not the case, though, with power generation plants. The conflict saw four of the 14 plants suffer serious damage, representing nearly 18% of the pre-war installed capacity nationwide. Two other plants near Hama and Damascus have also been damaged but have since been partially repaired. In 2021, the Ministry of Electricity estimated the sector’s production and transmission reconstruction cost at USD 2.4 billion. Though difficult to quantify, indirect losses in lost output in other sectors due to electricity cuts are likely to be orders of magnitude higher. Firms in regime-held areas identify the interruption to essential services as their main obstacle to doing business. Renewable energy use was falling even before the conflict, from 20% in the early 1990s to 5% as the conflict began. With the continued slowdown in water flow from Turkey and the failure to fix hydroelectric turbines, hydro sources contributed only 2% of public supply in 2020. While the government has made it easier for private investors to participate in the green electricity sector, especially wind and solar energy, their contribution remains negligible. Despite much talk and numerous memoranda of understanding, very little of the production capacity has been repaired. The country’s two principal backers, Russia and Iran, have shown little appetite for following through on agreements due to the government’s inability to secure funding. The country’s most pressing need is not restoring its production capacity, but, rather, sourcing enough fuels to reach its existing potential and fixing the damaged grid. These electric-related problems are complex and regional politics, sanctions, and technical issues all play their part. But Syria’s current electricity crisis is, at base, financial.
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