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Model(s) for the dispersion of hazardous substances in floodwaters for RAPID-N
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Model(s) for the dispersion of hazardous substances in floodwaters for RAPID-N

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Floods are one of the most common natural hazards in Europe, frequently affecting regions in the European Union (EU). In Europe, many chemical installations (e.g. Seveso establishments) are located in flood-prone areas. In case of flood impacts on such installations, accidental releases of hazardous materials, followed by pollution, fires or explosions, can occur. Accidents that involve the release of hazardous materials due to natural hazards, like floods, are called Natech accidents (Krausmann et al., 2017). In contrast to other types of Natech accidents, during flood-triggered Natech events releases of hazardous materials may no longer be contained in the vicinity of an industrial facility, e.g. in dikes around storage tanks. Instead, following inundation, chemicals can enter the floodwaters and with it disperse over vast areas, potentially contaminating urban settlements, rural areas and water bodies, or carrying flammable substances into residential zones. This can threaten local residents and their homes, the environment and economic activities (e.g., agriculture, fishery, tourism). Furthermore, some hazardous materials are reactive upon contact with water, further aggravating the consequences of such a Natech accident (Cozzani et al., 2010). A quick and effective response by crisis management teams can reduce the spreading of contaminants to a minimum and allow for a fast recovery of the spilt substance. However, this task is complex and requires the right set of tools and proper preparation. A detailed understanding of the hazardous substances and of their dispersion mechanism and fate (e.g., weathering, evaporation, oxidation, biodegradation, emulsification) are prerequisites for effective preparedness. Although the dispersion of pollutants in water bodies (e.g., rivers and seas) is a well-addressed scientific topic, there is little to no knowledge about dispersion of pollutants carried by floodwaters. The reason is that pollutant dispersion and inundation due to floodwaters have always been addressed in separate research fields. There is therefore a need for dedicated studies on the topic of hazardous substance dispersion in and with floodwater, as well as inclusion of (an) adequate model(s) in Natech risk analysis systems and tools to improve the management of flood-triggered Natech risks. Given the growing trend of floods in Europe and the need to be adequately prepared to respond to hazardous materials spills during floods, this study aims to: Analyse the scientific literature to identify models adequate for describing the dispersion of hazardous materials (toxic and/or flammable) in floodwaters; Identify and rank the model(s) for pollutant dispersion in floodwaters as per their suitability for inclusion in the Joint Research Centre’s RAPID-N system for rapid Natech risk analysis and mapping, considering the models’ physical complexity, availability (source code, licensing), computational speed, and ease of integration; Conceptualize the process for use of floodwater pollutant dispersion models in RAPID-N, including workflow, interoperability options, I/O options and suggestions with consistent visualization of results; Carry out a case study with the selected model for demonstration purposes; Discuss the identified shortcomings and gaps, and propose recommendations for closing the identified gaps. This study was funded by the European Commission’s Directorate General ECHO under the Administrative Arrangement “Enhancing the monitoring, early warning and analytical capacities of the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – 2020/2021”.
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