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Outline of the dynamic baseline for the MSFD impact assessment analysis in the context of the Blue2 modelling framework initiative
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Outline of the dynamic baseline for the MSFD impact assessment analysis in the context of the Blue2 modelling framework initiative

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As part of the support JRC is providing DG ENV on the coming review (impact assessment and potential revision) of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), it is necessary to develop a future scenario in which the Directive is not changed but that consider all other elements (policy and socio-economic developments) that are expected to happen in the next decades. This scenario is named the ‘dynamic baseline’ and it should provide (once simulated with the appropriate modelling tools) the likely environmental conditions of EU marine regions in 2050 in the case of ‘no-revision’ of the MSFD. The environmental conditions under this scenario should be compared against those derived from the different ‘revision scenarios’ in which different elements of the MSFD are changed. The difference between both scenarios should help quantify the impacts of the revision options. As a first step towards the realization of the dynamic baseline, it is necessary to identify the main elements (e.g., drivers, trends and policies) that should be considered for the different descriptors of the Good Environmental Status included in the MSFD. This report contains, for each individual descriptor, the drivers (e.g., socio-economic developments, climate changes and international cooperation) and legislations (both at EU and international level) that could influence the condition of those descriptors in the next few decades. The information contained in this report should provide the basis for the construction of the dynamic baseline scenario for the different descriptors covered by the Blue2 Modelling Framework to be simulated in the context of the Blue2.3 Administrative Arrangement.
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