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HomeInflation differentials in Europe and implications for competitiveness
Thematic note to support in-depth reviews
Metadata o publikaci
This note analyses inflation and competitiveness developments in selected EU countries, as input to the 2023 In-Depth Reviews under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. It aims to provide the analytical basis for the assessment of potential imbalances linked to competitiveness for Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia.1 These countries were selected after the first screening for imbalances in the 2023 Alert Mechanism Report on the basis of the evolution of their rates of inflation, unit labour costs and real effective exchange rates. Out of these Member States, only Romania has been considered to experience an imbalance in the 2022 assessment. This note considers the impact of common factors affecting inflation differentials and competitiveness, particularly of commodity price developments, to provide context to the forthcoming In-Depth Reviews under the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. The analysis to anticipate the evolution of potential risks by relying on the most recent data and available forecasts, and places recent developments in the context of changes that have taken place within and before the pandemic period.2 The analysis provided is not exhaustive. At the time of publication of the In-Depth Reviews, more up to date data will inform the assessments that will be made, and the existence or not of imbalances will take on board developments across countries’ economies and additional country-specific factors. Since 2019, the EU economies have been faced with a combination of supply and demand shocks that have affected both relative prices and inflation. Throughout the pandemic and after, various bottlenecks have constrained supply. At the same time, containment measures during the acute phase of the pandemic and uncertainty constrained demand, particularly for contact intensive services, affecting relative prices. In the recovery phase, the rapid surge in demand, while supply was still facing constraints, pushed prices up. Price pressures for energy and commodities, but especially for natural gas, were aggravated significantly by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of supplies, particularly to Europe.
- Zveřejněno:
- Instituce, která je autorem: Generální ředitelství pro hospodářské a finanční záležitosti (Evropská komise)
- Témata: Hospodářství – Finance
- Téma: energetická krize , Estonsko , finanční riziko , hospodářská struktura , hospodářský růst , inflace , konkurenceschopnost , Litva , Lotyšsko , Maďarsko , mzdové náklady , Rumunsko , Slovensko , zpráva o činnosti , Česko
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| ISSN 2443-8014 | ISBN 978-92-76-61647-4 | DOI 10.2765/395710 | Katalogové číslo KC-BC-23-005-EN-N |
- Released on EU publications website:
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