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Study to quantify and analyse the VAT gap in the EU-27 Member States
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Study to quantify and analyse the VAT gap in the EU-27 Member States

Report 2013

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This report provides estimates of the VAT Gaps for 26 of the 28 current countries of the European Union for the period 2000-2011 (Cyprus could not be included due to the imminent release of major revisions to its national accounts, and Croatia joined the EU after the report was completed). The VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the theoretical VAT liability and the collections of VAT, in any country and in any year (in absolute or percentage terms). The estimates in the report have benefitted from several direct communications from EU Member States authorities, which have allowed an improvement in accuracy of key parameters compared to Reckon (2009). The report also reviews the literature regarding measures of VAT efficiency and non compliance, and discusses other methodologies currently in use or under development by both academics and tax administrations. It cautions about the use that can be appropriate for the VAT Gaps, as they point not only to non-compliance, but can also register avoidance activities, which might be legal under the letter of the laws and regulations. The report estimates that the total VAT Gap for the 26 EU countries amounted to approximately Euro 193 billion in 2011, or about 1.5 percent of the GDP of the EU-26, an increase from the 1.1 percent of EU-26 GDP recorded in 2006. Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom contributed over half of the total VAT Gap in absolute terms, although in terms of their own GDP the countries with the largest gaps are Romania, Latvia, Greece and Lithuania. Econometric estimates of the determinants of the VAT Gap show that VAT compliance appears to fall when tax rates are increased, at least in countries with weaker tax enforcement. In addition, VAT compliance appears to fall during recessions. These results are consistent with predictions from the theory of tax avoidance, and consistent with some previous estimates.
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ISSN 2600-4739
ISBN 978-92-76-41938-9
DOI 10.2778/456646
Numero di catalogo KP-01-21-297-EN-N
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ISSN 2600-4739 ISBN 978-92-76-41938-9 DOI 10.2778/456646 Numero di catalogo KP-01-21-297-EN-N
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