The overall objective of the study is to analyse the degree and consequences arising from the internationalisation, fragmentation and security of supply of value chains for European industry. The focus is predominantly on the supply side (i.e. upstream) as opposed to the demand, downstream, side...
We explore the ability of a macroprudential policy instrument to dampen the consequences of equity mispricing (a bubble) and the correction thereof (the bubble bursting), as well as the consequences for real activity in a production economy. In our model, producers are financed by both bank debt...
The European Commission commissioned the OECD to elaborate a method to assign innovation coefficients to economic activities. This paper presents the method and shows the innovation coefficients, which have been prepared for about 200 sectors of the business economy (on a 3-digit level of the NA...
The length of the crisis that started in 2007/08 has brought the role of uncertainty in macroeconomic fluctuations to the fore. While economic theory suggests that increases in uncertainty have a negative impact on economic activity by depressing hiring, investment and consumption, measuring unc...
Looking ahead, EU GDP growth in 2011 is set to be somewhat stronger than expected in the Commission's autumn 2010 forecast, despite lingering vulnerabilities in financial markets. This improved outlook is supported, inter alia, by better prospects for the global economy and upbeat EU business se...
The deterioration in the lending position of the Greek economy mirrors an increasing gap between savings and investment, resulting from a combination of both rising investment and falling savings. Public and private sectors have alternated as the driving force of the deterioration in the country...
Growth in the second half of 2011 is now expected to be subdued, coming to a virtual standstill towards the end of the year. The soft patch predicted in the spring forecast is now likely to deepen but will not result in a double dip. This subdued outlook is underpinned by the weakening of consum...
This quarter’s highlight takes a closer look at the relationship between stocks and production expectations in the industry survey. The analysis suggests that the crisis has been associated with a significant change in manufacturers’ inventory behaviour, with increased aversion to the risk of ho...
