In this paper, I incorporate a complex network model into a state of the art stochastic general equilibrium framework with an active interbank market. Banks exchange funds one another generating a complex web of interbanking relations. With the tools of network analysis it is possible to study h...
This short-term outlook edition provides a forecast of market developments for key agricultural markets until 2021 based on market intelligence available until mid-September 2020. It reflects the Covid-19 impact to the extent possible. The next edition will be published in Spring 2021....
The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use...
We examine whether emerging market prudential policies help to reduce the macrofinancial spillover effects of US monetary policy. We find that emerging markets with tighter prudential policies face significantly smaller, and less negative, spillovers to total credit from US monetary policy tight...
In this paper, we present the results of the comprehensive assessment of the accuracy of European Economic Forecasts. High-quality macroeconomic forecasts are a prerequisite for economic surveillance of the European Commission. We evaluate forecasts for three key variables – GDP growth, consumer...
In March 2018, the United States (US) President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a tariff on US imports of steel and aluminium products. This Science for Policy report sheds light on the possible macroeconomic impacts of this policy, focusing in particular on exports, value added (VA), o...
