The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use...
Does distance matter for the volatility of international real and financial transactions? We show that it does, in addition to its well-established relevance for the level of trade. A simple model of trade with endogenous markups shows that demand shocks have a larger impact on trade between mor...
This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the relative importance of global structural shocks for changes in financial conditions across a sample of emerging market economies. We disentangle four key drivers of global financial markets (oil supply shocks, global economic news shocks, US-s...
The economic and fiscal outlook has recently improved for European economies, raising the odds that high public debts inherited from the crisis will be gradually wound down in line with EU fiscal rules. This will however take time and future debt trajectories remain exposed to significant uncert...
For centuries, defaulting governments were immune from legal action by foreign creditors. This paper shows that this is no longer the case. Building a dataset covering four decades, we find that creditor lawsuits have become an increasingly common feature of sovereign debt markets. The legal dev...
This report was prepared by the ESRB Expert Group on non-performing loans, a substructure under the Advisory Technical Committee, which was mandated to identify macroprudential policy-oriented issues related to non-performing loans (NPLs) and to develop ideas on possible macroprudential response...
This thesis deals with the economics of crises, within the macro-finance literature. The first chapter, co-authored with Rasmus Pank, deals with how crises emerge. Particularly, we are interested in how confidence affects the outcomes in an experimental asset market where the fundamental value i...
With 23 participating countries, including all of the world’s largest financial centres, covering the vast bulk of global financial services trade, the TiSA negotiations on financial services trade are strategically important for the EU. They are likely to deliver commitments and rules, which go...
Using the announcement of the first Greek bailout on April 11, 2010, we quantify significant spillover effects from sovereign to corporate credit risk in Europe. A ten percent increase in sovereign credit risk raises corporate credit risk on average by 1.1 percent after the bailout. These effect...
This paper analyses three questions related to the EU/EMU integration infrastructure: (i) interrelation between monetary and fiscal integration; (ii) interrelation between monetary integration and closer coordination of macroeconomic policies and (iii) fiscal discipline vs. fiscal solidarity. On...
