The recent economic recovery in the euro area has also brought a recovery in corporate activity that has reduced many of our worst fears about economic scarring and rising credit risk. Instead, risks of high rates of corporate defaults and bank losses are now significantly lower ...

The outlook for euro area activity and inflation has become very uncertain and depends crucially on how the Russian war in Ukraine unfolds, on the impact of current sanctions and on possible further measures. The baseline includes an initial assessment of the impact of the war on...

The European Commission’s Competence Centre on Microeconomic Evaluation (CC-ME) was founded on May 19, 2016 to support the evaluation function in the European Commission. CC-ME is part of Unit JRC.I.1 “Monitoring, Indicators & Impact Evaluation”. CC-ME builds on the experienc...

This study analyses the potential European Union (EU) added value (or untapped cost of non-Europe) in certain areas of social and labour policy: short-time work schemes, anti-poverty and inequality-reduction measures, and minimum wage regulations. The three areas are closely inte...

In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2022, HICP inflation expectations were revised up, standing at 3.0%, 1.8% and 1.9% for 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively.1 Compared with the previous round (fourth quarter of 2021), these were higher by 1...

This is the thirteenth enhanced surveillance report for Greece. The report is based on the findings of a mission held virtually on 25 January 2022 and regular dialogue with the authorities. The mission was conducted by the European Commission in liaison with the European Central ...

The EU economy entered the new year on a weaker note than previously projected. Having regained the pre-pandemic output level in summer last year, a moderate slowdown was already expected in the Autumn Forecast. However, since then headwinds to growth have intensified. After a so...

Offering an overview of the economic and budgetary situation in the EU and beyond, and summarising the main economic indicators in the EU and euro area and their two-year trends, this study is the sixth in an annual series of ‘Outlooks’ produced by the European Parliamentary Rese...