Foresight is an action-oriented endeavour: only rarely does it look at events not taking place, actions not taken, or the consequences of doing nothing. But inaction can have far-reaching repercussions. Policymaking is not just about devising and implementing policies, but also a...
Covid-19 erupted into a landscape of change: even before the pandemic unfolded, the world was already grappling with major challenges and the emergence of new geopolitical fissures and trends. In the face of the economic and societal changes brought by the coronavirus, as well as...
This Chaillot Paper looks at the police in the Arab world – an institution at the centre of political life but one that is very much under-researched. After years of attempts at reform, it seems that not much progress has been made in reducing corruption and violence, or increasi...
“History is littered with mistaken predictions about the future of warfare”: taking this observation as its premise, this Chaillot Paper takes a novel approach to exploring how future conflicts might unfold. In contrast to traditional schools of conflict anticipation, which rely ...
This Chaillot Paper seeks to provide readers with ambitious foresight analysis and insights on how to be prepared for unexpected twists and turns in Russia’s future trajectory. The opening chapter highlights a set of key megatrends that will shape how Russia evolves in the decade...
This Chaillot Paper analyses the evolution of EU member states’ strategies towards sub-Saharan Africa, as well as those of global actors, against the backdrop of systemic changes, including the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic. It seeks to identify the points of convergence ...
The 14 scenarios in this Chaillot Paper all follow the same structure, taking us not only on a journey to the future but also backwards to the present: they start out with the signpost set in 2024, describe the desirable future in the years beyond that date, and lay out the pathw...
This 'Chaillot paper' focuses on new EU initiatives in the defence domain – in particular the creation of the European Defence Fund – and on the Union’s evolving role and engagement in this sector. The paper seeks to address three specific questions: (i) how can economic ...
At first glance, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region appears particularly unsuited to conducting foresight exercises due to its many disruptive and surprising developments. But beyond their actual predictability, it is precisely because the region features so many sudd...
The migration crisis that engulfed Europe in 2015 highlighted the EU’s vulnerability when faced with major instability and disruption at its borders. Although the Union has internal and external security arms – comprising the 10 home affairs agencies that underpin its area of fre...
