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Afghanistan and Central Asia

Prospects and challenges after withdrawal of NATO/ISAF forces

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Years of conflict have damaged Afghanistan’s economic, political, physical, social and institutional structures. Afghanistan ranks 175 out of 187 in the 2013 Human Development Index. Gross Domestic Product per capita is estimated at USD 1,343. Despite improvements in recent years health and education-related indicators remain among the lowest in the world. Discrimination against women is endemic. The government continues to struggle to deliver basic public services, provide rule of law and guarantee internal security. Afghanistan has nevertheless made progress thanks to global partnerships in development, from the pledges made in the 2001 Bonn agreement to the mutual commitments and accountability struck at the 2012 Chicago and Tokyo conferences. Official Development Assistance has substantially grown since 2001. In 2008 Afghanistan became the world’s leading aid recipient. Even when excluding security sector assistance, the country's aid dependency ratio remains one of the highest in the world with external assistance funding 71% of GDP. The EU has been a major contributor of humanitarian and development assistance to Afghanistan. Between 2002 and 2012, the EU has committed EUR 2.7 billion through the general budget and disbursed 89 % of that. Taken together with the member states, the European contribution to the development of Afghanistan amounts to more than EUR 1 billion per year. The EU has focused on three areas where its support is complementary to that of others and can add value: policing and the rule of law, which are key to stabilisation; the health sector; and rural development, both of which aim to improve the socio-economic situation of Afghan citizens. Whereas tangible achievements have been made, overall progress has been slow in all three areas, given the complex environment of transition, the enormous challenges faced and ineffective donor alignment. In the area of rural development and health, the overall conclusion is that the EU has made a substantial impact but that future support would necessitate further flexibility and responsiveness from the Commission’s side to efficiently respond to the evolving needs of the country. EU efforts in de-mining and counter-narcotics have been less successful over the years. The support has been provided mainly through a project-based approach, yet is – in line with principles of aid effectiveness – being transferred into a more sector-wide approach, and channeled through, for instance, the relatively successful multi-donor trust funds administered by the World Bank and the UN. The critical years lie ahead. Afghanistan continues to be a conflict-afflicted and fragile state. There is considerable uncertainty as to what the political and security environment will look like past the 2014 transition horizon. Afghanistan will require extensive, predictable, and sustained international aid during the next decade to become a self-reliant country. The working hypothesis of the EU and member states seems to be premised on a continuation of support in previously determined focal sectors. This choice may bode well for the future, provided that the overall political and security situation proves resilient and that lessons learnt will be applied. Because active ownership is key for sustainability, an important aim of the EU will have to be to support state-building and long-term development in Afghanistan, focused on democratisation and economic governance, rule of law, basic service needs, and the creation of sustainable livelihoods, alternative to production of narcotics and illegal precursors. Enshrining those operating principles in the future EU-Afghanistan Cooperation Agreement for Partnership and Development, for which negotiations are currently underway, should provide the (legal) basis to structure mutual commitments and mutual accountability. The ongoing debates within the Commission and the Council on the future role of the EU in Afghanistan should lead to the development of a new strategy to replace the 2009 Action Plan; one that is aligned with the strategic thinking of the Afghan government, identifies deliverable objectives and timelines, and sets out a clear division of labour. The way in which conditionality is implemented will be essential if the EU’s measures are to have any effect on its addressees. The strategy should be ready for endorsement by mid-2014.

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Published: 2014-05-20
Corporate author(s): Directorate-General for External Policies of the Union (European Parliament)
Personal author(s): Davis, Rebecca ; Blockmans, Steven ; Reid, Rachel ; Parto, Seed ; Karzai, Hekmat Khalil
Themes: Defence , Foreign and security policy — Defence , Military structures
Subject: Afghanistan , Central Asia , development aid , economic consequence , enlargement of an international organisation , gross domestic product , humanitarian aid , international security , NATO , social impact , the EU's international role

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ISBN 978-92-823-5771-2

DOI 10.2861/64198

Catalogue number QA-04-14-479-EN-N

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ISSN	ISBN 978-92-823-5771-2	DOI 10.2861/64198	Catalogue number QA-04-14-479-EN-N

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Prospects and challenges after withdrawal of NATO/ISAF forces

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Prospects and challenges after withdrawal of NATO/ISAF forces

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