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The 2018 ageing report
Underlying assumptions and projection methodologies
Publication metadata
The sustainability of public finances in the EU can be better safeguarded if its analysis banks on reliable and comparable information on possible challenges to fiscal sustainability, including the expected strains caused by the demographic changes ahead. For this reason, the ECOFIN Council gave a mandate to the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to produce a new set of long-term budgetary
projections by 2018, on the basis of new population projections to be provided by Eurostat. The EPC and the Commission services (Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs - DG ECFIN) agreed on a work programme with broad arrangements to organise the budgetary projections and reach an agreement on its assumptions and methodologies to discharge this mandate (see the overview of the projection exercise for details). This report provides a description of the underlying macroeconomic assumptions and methodologies of the age-related expenditure projections for all Member States. On the basis of these assumptions and methodologies, age-related expenditures covering pensions, health care, long-term care, education and also unemployment benefits (for the sake of completeness) will be calculated and presented in the sixth Ageing Report to the ECOFIN Council in spring 2018. The long-term projections show where (in which countries), when, and to what extent ageing pressures will accelerate as the baby-boom generation retires and as the EU population continues to extend its life span in the future. Hence, the projections are helpful in highlighting the immediate and future policy challenges for governments posed by demographic trends. The report provides a very rich set of information at the individual country level, compiled in a comparable manner. Comparable and reliable underlying projections are crucial since they cover a long time-span (until 2070). The projections feed into a variety of policy debates and processes at EU level, including the overarching Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth. In particular, they are used in the context of the European Semester so as to identify policy challenges, including in setting the mediumterm budgetary objectives (MTOs), in the annual assessment of the sustainability of public finances carried out as part of the Stability and Growth Pact, and additionally in the analysis on the impact of ageing populations on the labour market and potential economic growth.
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Publication details
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Published:
2018-06-05
Corporate author(s):
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
(
European Commission
)
Themes:
Demography and population
,
Economic policy — Economic and monetary union
Subject:
economic forecasting
,
EU expenditure
,
EU Member State
,
health expenditure
,
labour force
,
long-term forecast
,
macroeconomics
,
non-working population
,
pension scheme
,
population ageing
,
population forecast
,
public finance
,
report
,
unemployment
PDF
ISSN
2443-8014
ISBN
978-92-79-64714-7
DOI
10.2765/286359
Catalogue number
KC-BC-17-065-EN-N
PDF
ISSN
2443-8014
ISBN
978-92-79-64714-7
DOI
10.2765/286359
Catalogue number
KC-BC-17-065-EN-N
Paper
ISSN
ISBN
978-92-79-64713-0
DOI
10.2765/40638
Catalogue number
KC-BC-17-065-EN-C
Paper
ISBN
978-92-79-64713-0
DOI
10.2765/40638
Catalogue number
KC-BC-17-065-EN-C
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