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The discretionary fiscal effort
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The discretionary fiscal effort
An assessment of fiscal policy and its output effect
Publication metadata
This paper presents an indicator of the fiscal stance that combines features of the bottom-up, narrative approach on the revenue side with a refined version of the top-down, traditional approach of the structural balance on the expenditure side. With these characteristics the indicator offers an image of fiscal policy that avoids both the 'endogeneity problems' of the structural balance and the
'indeterminacy' of the narrative approach. This indicator is used to shed light on EU fiscal policies and estimate the average short-term output effects of fiscal policy. Results suggest that, with exceptions, fiscal policy has been conducted in a more stop and go and pro-cyclical fashion over the past decade than suggested by traditional indicators. The average fiscal multiplier is estimated at a bit below unity on average, with higher (resp. lower) multipliers associated with expenditure (resp. revenue) shocks, and higher (resp. lower) multipliers in times of declining (resp. increasing) output gaps.
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Publication details
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Published:
2015-03-30
Corporate author(s):
Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
(
European Commission
)
Personal author(s):
Carnot, Nicolas
;
Castro, Francisco de
Themes:
Taxation
,
Economic policy — Economic and monetary union
Subject:
economic indicator
,
fiscal policy
,
national budget
,
public expenditure
PDF
ISSN
1725-3187
ISBN
978-92-79-44806-5
DOI
10.2765/46021
Catalogue number
KC-AI-15-543-EN-N
PDF
ISSN
1725-3187
ISBN
978-92-79-44806-5
DOI
10.2765/46021
Catalogue number
KC-AI-15-543-EN-N
Paper
ISSN
1016-8060
ISBN
978-92-79-44805-8
DOI
10.2765/723675
Catalogue number
KC-AI-15-543-EN-C
Paper
ISSN
1016-8060
ISBN
978-92-79-44805-8
DOI
10.2765/723675
Catalogue number
KC-AI-15-543-EN-C
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