Analysing the automobile sector is important for understanding the evolution of many economies in the EU. This is because of the sector’s direct importance in terms of GDP and employment, its sensitivity to the economic cycle, as well as its extended role in the economy through supply chains. Wh...
This paper studies the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in promoting central bank independence (CBI). While anecdotal evidence suggests that the IMF has been playing a vital role for CBI, the underlying mechanisms of this in uence are not well understood. We argue that the IMF has u...
We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and A...
Inspired by the ideas developed in Timmer (2017), this paper proposes a measure of Global Value Chain – Total Factor Productivity (GVC-TFP) and a decomposition of its changes into three informative factors: changes in factor requirements associated with efficiency gains/losses in the use of capi...
The provision of financial services across borders is an important feature of ongoing financial integration in the EU, although the role of branches and subsidiaries of foreign institutions follows very different patterns across Member States. While extensive provision of cross-border financial ...
This sectoral report has been prepared in the framework of the ‘Advanced Technologies for Industry’ (ATI) project, initiated by the European Commission, Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs and the Executive Agency for Small and Medium-sized Enterprises. I...
This study examines the home bias in trade in goods and services within the European Union. Using the newest release of the World Input Output database, available for the years 2000- 2014, the effect is estimated using gravity regressions. The trade-reducing effect of borders is found to be size...
The Bayesian Estimation, Analysis and Regression toolbox (BEAR) is a comprehensive (Bayesian) (Panel) VAR toolbox for forecasting and policy analysis. BEAR is a MATLAB based toolbox which is easy for non-technical users to understand, augment and adapt. In particular, BEAR includes a user-friend...
This paper reviews the debate on the longer-term requirements for safeguarding the euro as a currency beyond the state that is anchored through collective governance instead of a central government. The strengthening of EU economic and financial governance in the wake of the euro area crisis goe...