Abstract. The business cycle is alive and well, and real variables respond to it more or less as they always did. Witness the Great Recession. Inflation, in contrast, has gone quiescent. This paper studies the sources of this disconnect using VARs and an estimated DSGE model. It finds that the d...
In this paper, I incorporate a complex network model into a state of the art stochastic general equilibrium framework with an active interbank market. Banks exchange funds one another generating a complex web of interbanking relations. With the tools of network analysis it is possible to study h...
The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use...
We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and A...
This paper develops an early warning model of systemic banking crises that combines regression tree technology with a statistical algorithm to improve its accuracy and overcome some drawbacks of more standard models....
This thesis contains four papers. While the first three take a micro labor perspective, the fourth takes an international macro perspective. The common theme in the first three papers is the acquisition and destruction of human capital. The fourth was inspired by a seminar given by Jacques Melit...
LSE Consulting, the consulting arm of the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), has arried out out a Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in support of the negotiations for the odernisation of the trade part of the Global Agreement (GA) between the European Union (EU) and Mex...
How far should capital requirements be raised in order to ensure a strong and resilient banking system without imposing undue costs on the real economy? Capital requirement increases make banks safer and are beneficial in the long run but also entail transition costs because their imposition red...
Standard economic intuition suggests that asset prices are more sensitive to news than other economic aggregates. This has led many researchers to conclude that asset price data would be very useful for the estimation of business cycle models containing news shocks. This paper shows how to forma...
The purpose of this paper is to assess the effect of fiscal measures on the investment decisions of French non-financial corporations. As a reference framework, we use the model developed by Eudeline et al. (2013). We extend this framework by introducing the effect of fiscal incentives on invest...