The paper investigates the impact of euro adoption on sovereign credit ratings and on long-term rates experienced until the 20th anniversary of the euro. The three pillars of the research are (1) the analysis of the scoring methodology of Credit Rating Agencies, (2) the empirical investigation o...
Economic activity in the EU and the euro area moderated last year on the back of a combination of internal and external factors. While a moderation of growth was already in the cards, the slowdown in the second half of 2018 turned out to be more pronounced than expected. Growth in the euro area ...
The economic landscape has not changed much in the weeks since the spring forecast was published on May 3, but the results of the UK referendum on 23 June have modified the conditions for the way ahead. The ‘leave’ vote has resulted in financial market volatility, abrupt exchange rate changes, a...
This paper analyses three questions related to the EU/EMU integration infrastructure: (i) interrelation between monetary and fiscal integration; (ii) interrelation between monetary integration and closer coordination of macroeconomic policies and (iii) fiscal discipline vs. fiscal solidarity. On...
The European economy continued to weather external headwinds in the second half of 2019 thanks to the strength of domestic drivers. Growth in the euro area turned out better than expected in the third quarter but disappointed at the end of the year. Leading indicators suggest that manufacturing ...
Building on the vision set out in the Five Presidents’ Report, the Commission presented its roadmap for deepening Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union in December 2017. As a next step, in the Multiannual Financial Framework, the Commission is proposing a European Investment Stabilisation Functio...
The euro area suffers from economic and financial imbalances between its members. Macro-prudential policy can help remedy this in as much as it can be deployed both at euro area level and Member State level. A macro-prudential policy framework to regulate financial cycles at Member State level a...
The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estim...