We provide a survey of the literature on panel vector autoregression (pVAR) models and of their main characteristics. We also assess the possible gains pVAR models might yield for flash estimation, now-casting and economic short-term (point and density) forecasting, and discuss some yet unexploi...
On behalf of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), it is a great pleasure to welcome you to the 2018 Annual Conference, which convenes under the timely theme ‘Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the Future in a Fast-Changing World.’ Once again, the European Political Strategy Cent...
The aim of this paper is to study the distribution of portfolio returns across portfolios and for given asset returns. We focus on the most common type of investment considering portfolios whose weights are non-negative and sum up to 1. We provide algorithms and formulas from computational geome...
After a decade of preparations, the decision to move to the final stage of EMU was taken in early May 1998, and on 1 January 1999 the euro became the official currency in eleven EU member countries, followed by four members in later years. Ten years on, the time is ripe for a first comprehensive...
This study maps and analyses current and future global trends in the fields of economics and society, covering the period to 2035. Drawing on and complementing existing literature, it summarises and analyses the findings of relevant foresight studies in relation to such global trends. It traces ...
A statistical decision rule incorporating judgment does not perform worse than a judgmental decision with a given probability. Under model misspecification, this probability is unknown. The best model is the least misspecified, as it is the one whose probability of underperforming the judgmental...
We exploit election-driven turnover in State and local governments in Germany to study how banks adjust their securities portfolios in response to the loss of political connections. We find that local savings banks, which are owned by their host county and supervised by local politicians, increa...
Dans son discours sur l’état de l’Union 2017, en présentant sa vision pour l’avenir de l’Europe, le président Juncker a annoncé son projet de créer une fonction de ministre européen de l’économie et des finances, qui gérerait l’euro et servirait l’économie européenne....
This paper develops a politico-economic model of the joint dynamics of economic interaction and political integration. Based on the theoretical model, we derive several hypotheses on how to explain the recently observable decline in popular support for European integration. These hypotheses are ...
