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Analysis accompanying the impact assessment for the revision of Regulation (EU) N° 1315/2013 on Union guidelines for the development of the trans-European transport network
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Analysis accompanying the impact assessment for the revision of Regulation (EU) N° 1315/2013 on Union guidelines for the development of the trans-European transport network

Executive summary to the final report

Analysis accompanying the impact assessment for the revision of Regulation (EU) N° 1315/2013 on Union guidelines for the development of the trans-European transport network

Executive summary to the final report

Metadata for publikationen

The purpose of this Final Report as part of the support study to the TEN-T IA is to present the results of the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the three policy options developed for the revision of the TEN-T guidelines (EU REG 1315/2013). These are assessed relative to a Baseline and an Alternative Baseline Scenario (ABS). The focus of the analysis is to compare the impacts against the ABS, which already incorporates the largest part of a transition to a decarbonized society in the EU-27. The quantitative analysis applied the integrated assessment model ASTRA and the transport network model TRUST. It should be noted that the three policy options (POs) are designed cumulatively, i.e. PO2 builds on and integrates PO1 and PO3 builds on PO2 and thus integrates PO1 and PO2. The current TEN-T regulation requires investments of about 500 billion € to complete the core network until 2030. Completing the remaining part of the comprehensive network by 2050 is estimated to require investment of up to 1,000 billion €. These include investments for decarbonisation and digitalisation. The additional investment for the period 2025-2050 that is estimated in this study to fully implement the proposed policy options relative to the ABS, is estimated at 427 billion €. Looking at the broad picture of impacts, economic development is stimulated, there are rail mode gains and car mode loses, though the achieved modal-shift remains moderate. CO2, pollutant emissions and accidents decline. Overall, the achievements of the POs remain moderate. Compared to the ABS in 2050, GDP increases by 1.79% in PO2, and by 2.37% in PO3. The cumulative impact on employment is 7.579 million job years generated relative to the ABS from 2025 to 2050 in PO2 and 10.573 million job years in PO3.1 Dividing the cumulative gain of GDP by the total investment leads to the economic multiplier of investment. At the EU-27 level the GDP multiplier is remarkably high at 7.3 (PO2) and 8.7 (PO3) respectively, meaning that for every euro invested 8.7 € of GDP is created. Passenger demand for road transport falls by -0.5% in PO2 and -0.4% in PO3. For passenger rail transport it is the opposite: +3.5% in PO2 and in PO3 respectively. A similar picture is observed for freight transport. In PO2 road freight transport activity falls by -0.3% while rail increases by +2.4%. In PO3, road demand falls further by -0,4%, while rail increases by +3.5% relative to the ABS. CO2 emissions from total transport in 2050 fall by -0.2% both in PO2 and PO3. The analysis of administrative costs shows that additional costs would need to be incurred for the proposed extension of the TEN-T guidelines. On average, the EC would have to spend an additional 1.4 million € per year over the next 10 years. Stakeholders benefit from the simplifications that save expenditures of about 1.8 million € over 10 years. Still the expected average stakeholder additional administrative cost amounts to 1.7 million € annually. The major reasons for this are that both already engaged stakeholders are assigned additional tasks (e.g. to infrastructure managers) and new stakeholders will get involved in TEN-T policy, in particular in urban nodes (e.g. municipal authorities, operators of mobility hubs and urban terminals). Considering the cumulative implementation of the policy options, the largest increase in administrative costs by any of the three POs is estimated to be to for increase the policy ambition from PO1 to PO2.
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ISBN 978-92-76-47064-9
DOI 10.2832/63968
Katalognummer MI-05-22-023-EN-N
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ISSN ISBN 978-92-76-47064-9 DOI 10.2832/63968 Katalognummer MI-05-22-023-EN-N
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