To mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a special survey was conducted in 2023 to explore the processes and methodologies underlying participants' forecasts. Participants were sent this fourth special survey on SPF forecast processes and methodologies in...
In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation, and those for HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX), were essentially unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the first quarter of 2024). Respondent...
In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation, and those for HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX), were revised down compared to the previous survey (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2023). Based on res...
In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2023, expectations for headline HICP inflation were broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey (conducted in the third quarter), while those for HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) were revised do...
In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2023, expectations for headline HICP inflation were broadly unchanged compared to the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter). However, these unchanged aggregate expectations concealed downward revision to H...
In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2023, expectations for headline HICP inflation in 2023 were revised down compared with the previous survey (conducted in the first quarter), while expectations for HICP inflation excluding food and energy (HICPX) in 20...
In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2023, HICP inflation expectations for 2023 and 2024 were revised up from the previous survey round (for the fourth quarter of 2022) to stand at 5.9% and 2.7% respectively. The upward revisions primarily reflect changes ...
In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2022, HICP inflation expectations were revised up further for the 2022-2024 horizons, standing at 8.3%, 5.8% and 2.4% for 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. According to respondents, the upward revisions primarily refle...
In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2022, HICP inflation expectations were revised up across all horizons, standing at 7.3%, 3.6% and 2.1% for 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. According to respondents, the upward revisions mainly reflect higher energy an...
HICP inflation expectations were revised up by 3.0 percentage points for 2022 and 0.6 percentage points for 2023 but unchanged for 2024, standing at 6.0%, 2.4% and 1.9% for 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively. The upward revision for 2022 mainly reflects higher expected energy and food price inflat...